Coffee Prices Surge Over 30% in Q3 2025 as Global Supply Faces New Shock
Global coffee prices are on the rise again, leaving traders, producers, and consumers watching closely. After a rough mid-year slump, coffee futures staged a dramatic comeback in the third quarter of 2025, surging over 30% and breaking above $3.90 per pound.
A Rollercoaster Year for Coffee Futures
Coffee started 2025 on a strong note. Arabica futures opened at $3.26 per pound in January, posting gains of more than 17% in the first month alone. By the end of Q1, prices stood at $3.82 per pound, reflecting strong bullish sentiment.
However, by May, the market turned bearish. A sharp selloff wiped out over 20% of coffee’s value, dragging futures to $3.02 per pound by the end of June. Prices briefly dipped below $3.00 per pound in July, sparking concerns among growers and exporters.
The Tariff That Changed Everything
The game changer came on August 6 when the Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of Arabica beans, suddenly faced restricted access to the United States the biggest coffee-consuming market.
This triggered panic across commodity markets. According to Cecafé president Márcio Ferreira, concerns over whether global supply could meet demand pushed futures sharply higher. Momentum carried into early September, lifting contracts by more than 30% from their Q2 lows.
A Familiar Impact for Nigeria
For Nigeria, the rally brings back memories of 2024 when global coffee prices skyrocketed 70% due to a severe drought in Brazil. That year saw major price hikes for consumers. Popular brands like Nescafé 3-in-1 rose from N18,000 per carton in 2023 to N34,000 by August 2024.
With 2025 prices now spiking again, experts warn that Nigeria could once more face higher retail costs. This may squeeze small businesses, cafes, and households already struggling with inflation.
Arabica Leads the Rally
Arabica contracts have been the strongest driver of this rebound. After hitting $2.97 per pound in July, Arabica prices gained over 32% in August alone. Analysts now predict a potential break above the $4.30 per pound resistance level printed earlier in February. Such a move would signal even higher prices ahead, keeping bullish traders excited.
What Lies Ahead
Analysts believe the coming months will be critical. If tariffs remain and Brazilian supply continues to be disrupted, coffee prices could stay elevated well into 2026. The market will also be watching for weather patterns in South America, as another drought could tighten supply further.
For consumers, this means coffee may remain an expensive staple. For investors, however, the rally represents a rare opportunity to profit from commodity volatility.
